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Is there indeed a trend of increased cloud cover? Can this be supported by data? So I wouldn't count on this to save the ice, even if such a trend emerges.

Quote from: oren on May 21, , PM. Frazil ice Posts: Liked: 46 Likes Given: 1. Quote from: Hefaistos on May 21, , PM. Who am I to question the scientists, but here goes anyway.

Son of The Smoky Sea. Just because their observation period does not match the melt season, does not make it irrelevant to the melt season.

Since the Arctic is almost completely ice covered at the start of the melt season, there is no open water to generate clouds.

The time period was chosen to maximize observational data. Their work complemented previous work, which drew similar conclusions.

Melt ponds have similarities to open water so I am not surprised that a study found that there was not significant correlation of cloudiness with open water in the summer.

The scientists who have focused their careers on ice have a point. The amount of energy involved in melting multiyear sea ice and "Atlantifying" the Barents sea has been enormous.

Change has taken place on a decadal basis as greenhouse gases have caused an increase in the enthalpy of the global oceans. Note that the melting of massive amounts of Greenland's ice in and may have led to a strong cooling of the north Atlantic southeast of Greenland.

This cooling may have reduced the amount of ocean heat transported into the Arctic through the Fram strait. The slow down in sea ice extent loss since is likely related to the cooling in the far north Atlantic caused by the influx of cold fresh melt water.

I don't think that changes in albedo caused by cloud cover have been beneficial to the ice because cloud cover has had the most impact in the fall when it's dark.

The clouds have caused warming of the lower atmosphere in the fall and winter months - not good for ice building up in the cold months. Augustine, Confessions V, 6.

Quote from: binntho on May 23, , PM. An interesting and relevant post from the melting season thread, copied here for posterity thanks to uniquorn for the idea : Quote from: Csnavywx on June 13, , AM.

Quote from: Frivolousz21 on June 12, , PM. The May value now includes Volume and thickness for May lie well above the long term trend lines, extent is at the trend line whereas area dips below it.

The "BOE numbers" increased by averaged 3 years thickness and 2 years volume and decreased by 4 years extent compared to May The period between — still seems to me to be the most likely timeframe for the first BOE event based on the linear regression of the data.

This factor would seem to generally become more prominent going forward given earlier breakup of the ice back and detachment of fast ice allowing the freer flow of ice for a longer period.

Thus, less overall ice remaining in the CAB that needs to thermally melt. The degree of melt ponds and melting momentum that Neven cited in is an example.

Instead, it seems that there are now more Polynyas which warms the ocean around the edges of an icepack vs.

Given the relatively low heat content of air vs. JNap, You have listed mostly positive feedback loops, but no negative ones.

These would include more open water leads to more heat loss in the fall and winter, and evaporation leading to enhanced cloudiness, blocking incoming radiation during the summer.

Based on the linear regression, I do not see anything corresponding to your early dates. That is for a BOE being a normal event.

Given unusual conditions the first one can be earlier in the decade. Tom, Totally agree. In , , and , the volume dropped significantly below the trend line given an alignment of the weather conditions, e.

I was simply trying to use the data to estimate of the first BOE year given the trends. Phoenix Guest. JNap, the threshold is generally accepted as 1 million square km.

The two-dimensional decline more closely resembles a linear decline, and would not occur in the next two decades. Three-dimensional decline is much less linear, as Phoenix stated.

Greenland coasts where the remaining ices resides will likely have a different melting dynamic than the other central seas and peripheral sea have experienced for the past 4 decades.

IMHO, it reminds me too much of happen with global temps with the super el nino year in It took several years before that outlier year was exceed.

But the marco AGW trend continued along a similar path. What is do see occurring as mechanism that could drive the melt of the remaining CAB is a stronger, positive feedback loop of increasing AWP.

Earlier melts of Central seas such as the Siberian side this year, expose the ocean to more and more of the peak solar insolation period from mid-May to early Aug.

Below is a crude attempt to illustrate. The first chart is many years of the amount of sea ice melt in the Laptev sea with thus far in red.

The second chart is the amount of solar insolation by latitude, with 90 degress in orange. The last chart is an overlay of the two.

This is where it gets interesting for me. The combination of earlier melts to expose open ocean to peak solar insolation changes the amount of energy that can enter into the system.

This is where I fully agree with your point about the impact of weather. If there are a lot of clouds for long periods during this albedo potential window, then only a small impact.

However, if the weather happens to have a period of higher amount of sun during this window, then the albedo potential will be realized.

From what I have read from Wipneas and again, happy to be further educated , each day in higher solar insolation period will melt approximately 5 - 6cm of ice.

So if we have one week of earlier melt AND have a strong, sunny period, then 30 - 40cm of extra ice melt could occur. Only a few of these periods would have to align in a given year to materially impact the ice.

The long term trend for earlier melts would provide the increasing odds for such as situation. The it would be up the variances in the weather to align a series or two of High pressure, sunny weather to make it occur.

Overlay Laptev with solar insolation. These would include more open water leads to more heat loss in the fall and winter, Not all of that heat is radiated to space.

Some of it goes on to be accumulated in the surrounding land masses. Certainly looks like will be bucking that trend. A very interesting article in the Guardian today.

Climate crisis: alarm at record breaking heat wave in Siberia. Checking in on climate reanalyzer, there are large plumes of precipitable water over ESS and Laptev to go with the heat waves, so I really wonder how long that ice is going to last.

However, while ESS and Laptev are getting torched, it looks to me like the low pressure that lasts for days over the CAB keeping it cloudy and is avoiding significant preconditioning in the CAB.

So my guess for the melting season is that ESS and Laptev will melt out pretty much completely, but the CAB above 80 degrees won't melt out very much.

So area will decline alot until ESS and Laptev are done, and then declines will slow down quite a bit, much like or Just a guess though.

Next seven days, the central vortex is gonna be squeezed between Canada and Siberia by strong ridges. Cannot imagine a warmer scenario with a well centered moderate low.

Pay attention to the early meltout of Laptev and ESS ice. Click to animate. Quote from: be cause on June 17, , PM.

Just a comment to Marcel that had nothing to do with Except that one was Yin and the other was Yang. Jesus, enormous change in a handful of days.

From here I would expect in August the eventual decimation of the entire Pacific half, plus a Laptev bite that might run north of 85 deg.

Quote from: gandul on June 17, , PM. Rarely have I seen such widespread heat within the Arctic circle , though the same time last year wasn't far behind.

Quote from: Paul on June 18, , AM. That storm I've been tracking for a few days now with 6 hour updates on the Nullschool Thread is becoming a monster according to the latest long term forecast.

It keeps finding new hot and moist air to feed on. Can we start calling this the GAC now? Quote from: Freegrass on June 18, , AM.

This storm does protects the Arctic from peak insolation right now, but that's not going to save the ice this year if this storm becomes any larger.

It'll destroy a lot of ice and open up to ocean to warming even after peak insolation. After rain there's always the sun The upcoming storm may be getting ready to block insolation over the CAB, but look at that ridge and southerly flow poking up into northern Canada!

We are about to discover how fast snowcover can melt. If it can catch up in the CAA with this week's weather pattern, all it needs then is to catch up in the Beaufort in order to be a contender.

Even if the CAB does not get much direct insolation up ahead, if the peripheral seas are weakened, that might be another route of attack on the ice.

Many fresh cracks on the shelf of the East Siberian Sea. The collapse of the shelf did occur. Augustine, Confessions V, 6.

Quote from: kaixo on June 17, , PM. Quote from: binntho on June 18, , AM. Even if immediate cloud albedo reflects strong sunlight of peak summer, ice free ocean catches more with the rest of season.

Is this GAC of remains to be seen. Not to mention that wind drastically increases the thermal conductivity between the ice and air.

Just like how a fan cools you down, but with the heat traveling in the opposite direction as long as the air is warmer than the ice.

And it is: Even in the middle of the storm most of the surface air is forecast to be above 0C.

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